Ehsan Zanganeh; Gholamreza Zamanian; Mohammad Nabi Shahiki Tash; Ali Cheshomi
Abstract
In Iran's economy, most of the financial resources needed by economic enterprises are provided through the granting of facilities by the banking network. Therefore, studying the factors affecting banking facilities in the private sector in Iran's economy is of particular importance. In this article, ...
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In Iran's economy, most of the financial resources needed by economic enterprises are provided through the granting of facilities by the banking network. Therefore, studying the factors affecting banking facilities in the private sector in Iran's economy is of particular importance. In this article, we investigate the factors affecting the facilities granted by banks using quarterly data from the Iranian economy from 1379 to 1399 with the nonlinear Markov switching approach. A non-linear approach was used because bank facilities show different effects of economic factors during periods of credit and commercial boom and bust. The results of the research show that the economic growth rate, the interest rate of facilities and the growth rate of bank deposits have a positive relationship with the growth of real facilities and the interest rate of bank deposits has a negative effect on it, but the degree of influence of each of the economic factors on the growth rate of real facilities is different in every cycle. This asymmetric impact of macroeconomic factors during different cyclical periods is important in policymaking and should be taken into consideration when making monetary policy.
Abolfazl Pasbani; ali cheshomi; meisam pileforoush
Abstract
This article has surveyed effect of political institutions on performance of oil funds and seeks to make a meaningful contribution to the literature on the use of oil funds in resource-dependent countries, by proposing that what differences in political institutions, cause differences in performance ...
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This article has surveyed effect of political institutions on performance of oil funds and seeks to make a meaningful contribution to the literature on the use of oil funds in resource-dependent countries, by proposing that what differences in political institutions, cause differences in performance of oil funds in Iran, Norway and Saudi Arabia. In situations that institutional framework causes maximization of benefits with long-term decisions, the mechanism of oil funds are successful. And in situations that institutional framework causes maximization of benefits with short-term decisions, the mechanism of oil funds are not successful. Institutional framework in full democracies and paternalism authoritarian regimes lead to the long-term decisions, but institutional framework in flawed democracies leads to short-term decisions. It seems that in Iran, motivations implicit in institutional structure push politicians to take short-term decisions instead of long-term decisions, such that politicians are inclined to maximize their own interests and consider short-term period. That has been of the most important factor in failure of Iran's Foreign Currency Reserves Account or National Development Fund.
ali cheshomi; Habib Habibi Nikjou
Abstract
Endogenous institutional reforms can be analyzed within the framework of political economy. This article focuses on institutional reforms in banking industry. The most important formal institution of banking system, which is regulation and supervision of banks, is carried out in Iran by its Central Bank ...
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Endogenous institutional reforms can be analyzed within the framework of political economy. This article focuses on institutional reforms in banking industry. The most important formal institution of banking system, which is regulation and supervision of banks, is carried out in Iran by its Central Bank and the Council of Money and Credit. In this article, the reforms in formal banking institutions in both de jure and de facto arrangements in the period after the 1979 revolution are analyzed. The main question of this article is that how the idea of North and others (2006 and 2009) on limited-access and open-access social order can apply only to the banking industry? Historical evidence and statistical analysis show that the institutional arrangement and enforcement characteristics of banking system in Iran is consistent with features of limited-access order. Especially in 1990s, although private banking was prohibited in Iran, but elites of the dominant coalition, achieved rent by establishing informal banks. These conditions resulted in increasing competition between members of dominant coalition and this led to amending the rules of entry in early 2000 in which private banks were allowed to be established formally. These newly established private banks had ties to another group of the dominant coalition. Then, numerous laws and regulations were adopted to improve supervision of banking activities. In late 2000, the interests of non-formal banks were damaged, and therefore, they tried to continue their activities in formal ways. Overall, the evidence suggests that the Iranian banking institutions still have features of natural state (limited-access order), but there has been a transition from the basic natural state before 2000s to some features of mature natural state.
Nasrin Rezaee-Moghaddam; Mahdi Mostafavi; Ali Cheshmi
Abstract
Sustaining long-term price stability, even when the central bank does not adopt an explicit inflation targeting policy, is known as the primary objective of monetary policy. Moreover, due to the lags of monetary policy, choosing appropriate measure of inflation is very important. Thus, in many countries, ...
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Sustaining long-term price stability, even when the central bank does not adopt an explicit inflation targeting policy, is known as the primary objective of monetary policy. Moreover, due to the lags of monetary policy, choosing appropriate measure of inflation is very important. Thus, in many countries, core inflation is widely calculated as an indicator that clarifies long-term trend of inflation and it is used to predict inflation and also to have an inflation target. The concept of core inflation and its efficiency in identifying long-term inflation trend can help policy-makers to have a better understanding of inflation components. Inflation in Iran has been influenced by many internal and external shocks. In this study, core inflation in Iran is estimated by using the Kalman filter in the context of structural time series during the period of 1974-2011. Based on the result, core inflation is affected by long-run effects of variables such as monetary base and liquidity and it has fluctuations like the measured inflation and the value of core inflation on average in the period under study is 15 percent.
